This story was reported and written by our media partner the Virginia Mercury.
Dominion Energy has filed new projections that show how the company plans to meet surging energy demands and what it would take to fully comply with the Virginia Clean Economy Act based on current resources. The utility is deliberating how to meet the need, with energy use increasing by 5% every year on average and projected to double by 2045.
The State Corporation Commission told the utility that it had to make some changes in how it calculates its potential long-range energy plans after their 2024 integrated resource plan, or IRP, was released. They are required by law to file these projections with the SCC every other year.
According to the new SCC rules, the utility must submit projections that cover a 20-year range, use the SCC’s preferred billing calculation methodology and include projections based on the retirement of all gas-powered plants, which are supposed to go offline by 2045 according to the Virginia Clean Economy Act.
In the new filing, Dominion calculates load growth into their estimates. Their numbers show an increase for average monthly residential homes of $255 a month by the end of 2035 and $268 by the end of 2045. Using the SCC methodology, monthly rates will increase to an estimated $308 by 2035 and $381 by 2045.
Dominion spokesman Aaron Ruby stressed that these are just projections and are not guaranteed to be the exact dollar amount for those years.
“Cost allocations are changed every two years. Always have been and will continue to be in the future. There has been a significant reallocation of costs over the last several years away from residential customers, and all the data centers,” Ruby said in a call. “Data centers are paying 10% larger share of transmission costs today than they were five years ago.”
Consumer advocates had previously commented in the 2024 IRP case that Dominion was not properly projecting their plans to comply with the VCEA and put too much focus on fossil fuels.
Dominion said that the majority of their new power generation is in renewable energy. In the IRP filing they estimate bringing on 33 gigabytes of energy in the next 20 years. Their plan, which is not set in stone and is based on a current snapshot in time, lays out solar being the largest growth sector at 53% of the new energy. Natural gas is the second largest with 25%, wind is to comprise 10%, battery storage will be 6%, and small nuclear reactors will be 6%. The IRP does not show details such as specific projects or where they would be placed.
Dominion has recently been scrutinized for their IRP that estimated six new gas powered plants would be needed in the coming years to meet energy demands. The first project to nearly come to fruition is the Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center, a plant to use during peak energy use days. Advocates say the reports contain too little analysis on the health impacts of the surrounding areas.
In the plan that fully retires gas plants by 2045, which is mandated by the VCEA, Dominion’s new filing said the company does not see a viable way to meet energy demands and take those plants offline. That plan includes significantly more investments in SMRs and two full-sized nuclear reactors in the coming years, which would potentially add billions of dollars onto the backs of ratepayers.
While the plan does bolster battery storage and solar, Ruby explained that the technology and availability will be a steep cost as well.
“We’re all in on solar and battery storage. However, solar and battery storage cannot single handedly serve all of our customers’ growing needs, we need more power generation from every source,” Ruby said. “There is no single power source or two power sources that can reliably serve all of our customers,”
As frustrations about regional grid operator PJM mount, due the company allegedly slow walking energy projects leading to delays getting on the grid and major price jumps in capacity purchase costs, Dominion wants to begin making a shift towards more energy independence. However, building out that infrastructure will come at a cost to consumers.
“We want to generate more of our own power and be less reliant on imported power, and that protects customers from more volatile, higher cost energy in other states, and it also gives us more control over our electricity supplies,” Ruby said.
Along with the IRP filing, Dominion also filed its 6th annual clean energy report. This is their largest proposal for new renewable energy projects that have already gotten local zoning and approval. Mainly solar and battery projects are now heading to the SCC for their individual cases.