This story was reported and written by our media partner Capital News Service.
Vickie Connors, assistant professor at the Center of Environmental Studies at Virginia Commonwealth University, owns a small farm a little over 40 miles from campus.
Two farmers maintain the 20-acre property, and like many in Virginia, they rely on long-range forecasts to decide what crops to grow.
Many Virginia farmers use the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, to guide their agricultural operations. However, cuts to the federal workforce under President Donald Trump have begun to affect NOAA’s employees, and there is concern that its ability to provide weather forecasts will be impacted.
Agriculture is the biggest private industry in Virginia, with an economic impact of $82.3 billion and over 381,800 jobs in 2021, according to the Virginia Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services and a study by the University of Virginia.
NOAA’s Impact on Agriculture
NOAA is a science agency that focuses on weather forecasting, monitoring the oceanic and atmospheric conditions, studying climate change and sharing its information.
“NOAA has responsibility in the area of our atmosphere and our oceans to keep up with what's happening in those environments and also to provide warnings if something serious might happen,” Connors said.
The agency provides weather and climate information to farmers so they can make decisions on their crops and livestock. This includes drought and nitrogen management, according to NOAA.
The forecasted intensity of rainfall makes a big difference for farming communities when they plan resource management, according to Connors. This includes livestock operations if farmers are growing grain to feed their animals through the winter.
“It's really hard to think about anyone who doesn't take advantage at some level the work and the data that NOAA provides,” Connors said.
NOAA also alerts when inclement weather is approaching, according to the National Weather Service.
Federal Cuts Begin to Disrupt NOAA's Workforce
Approximately 650 employees from NOAA were fired on Feb. 27, according to Rick Spinrad, a former NOAA administrator, who spoke at a press conference the next day. The mass layoffs are part of a broader workforce reduction under the Department of Government Efficiency, a new agency created by the Trump administration to tackle government bloat.
The number of layoffs may have increased since, according to multiple reports, although it is difficult to track the exact number. NOAA is seated within the Department of Commerce and in September 2024 had a reported 12,430 total employees, according to a congressional report.
Confusion and Concern Among Weather Experts
There’s a large amount of uncertainty with the layoffs, according to Sean Sublette, a Virginia meteorologist whose forecasts have been found on air, in print and online.
“It's hard to know precisely who has been laid off because some people are laid off and then they’ve been called back and then laid off again,” Sublette said.
His friend in Washington was laid off, rehired and then let go again. Another friend in Maryland was laid off from NOAA, but was recently called back to return. The unpredictability of these layoffs leaves employees unsure of what they are supposed to do, according to Sublette.
“These are all government workers, these are people whose career in public service protecting life and property, which is what NOAA’s mission has always been,” Sublette said.
Balloon Launches Cut, Budget Slashed Further
Sublette’s main concern is for the three primary National Weather Service offices in Virginia, where radars monitor for damaging weather, tornadoes and thunderstorms. People in the Blacksburg, Dulles and Wakefield offices are worried about staff being laid off.
“If the weather's especially volatile, and you need to bring in extra staff to handle it,” Sublette said. “Are they not available anymore?”
Sublette also expressed concern about potential cuts to the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service, a primary receiving station for satellite information.
“Those classical satellite pictures that you get on your phone or you see on TV,” Sublette explained. “So if people, they're laid off, does that put that equipment and that information at risk?”
NOAA’s data collection capabilities have already been hit. The NWS announced on March 20 that it would reduce the number of daily weather balloon launches at six forecast offices across the country. These balloons, typically launched twice a day, collect data about air pressure, wind speed and direction, humidity, and temperature.
Under the new plan, balloons will now be launched once a day from those sites, according to the NWS.
More funding concerns were recently raised, with multiple outlets reporting that the Office of Management and Budget proposed an upcoming 27% cut to NOAA’s current $6 billion budget.
Virginia Farmers Rely on Forecasts to Plan Season
Virginia’s agricultural sector could be significantly impacted by continued layoffs and reduced weather data. This follows a difficult year for Virginia farmers.
Hurricane Helene caused almost $160 million in damages to farms in Virginia due to flooding and harsh winds, according to an agricultural damage assessment by the Virginia Cooperative Extension. That includes crop and livestock loss, in addition to land and infrastructure damage.
Many regions also experienced drought. The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality issued a drought watch advisory to 95 counties and cities and a drought warning advisory to 12 counties in Virginia last June.
Farmers’ ability to respond to such conditions is closely tied to access to weather data services, according to Andrea Young, farmer and owner of Hidden Creek Farm in Fauquier County.
It’s more difficult for farmers to prepare and react to weather without data.
“I cannot bring the animals to safety, I cannot cover up those tender plants, I cannot know that a rainstorm is coming and so I shouldn't water,” Young said. “I cannot function as a farmer in an outdoor environment.”
Some Farmers Trust Instincts, Not Instruments
Not all farmers see the cuts as damaging. Howard Smith Sr., dairy farmer and owner of Gospel Spreading Farm in James City County, spends a lot of time outside. He relies more on traditional knowledge and weather patterns than digital forecasts.
“You don’t cut hay when you know the storm is coming,” Smith said, as an example.
He doesn't believe NOAA cuts will greatly impact farmers in the area, who, like him, may know from lots of outdoor experience what the weather will blow in or out.
“If you look in the clouds and you see a mist being drawn up into the clouds, then just know from experience that within three days it shall return upon the earth— it's going to rain,” Smith said. “You can't match that with no type of instrument.”
Climate Change and Food Security
The future carries much uncertainty for farmers, with climate change shifting agricultural growing zones and seasons. They have to prepare for major shifts in precipitation patterns, soil moisture, heat and minimum nighttime temperatures, while already living “right on the margin” of making a living, Connors said.
NOAA provides a global perspective of information that is utilized and tailored for agricultural purposes.
“Without that data stream, they will essentially be thrust back into like the 1700s of what they can do,” Connors said.
The cuts to NOAA will also impact consumers, according to Connors. Farmers won’t be as able to make informed decisions, and it could lead to food insecurity for the whole country.
“If we defund the federal agencies like NOAA and NASA, we're essentially turning our back on science,” Connors said.
Capital News Service is a program of Virginia Commonwealth University’s Robertson School of Media and Culture. Students in the program provide state government coverage for a variety of media outlets in Virginia.
