Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger takes office next weekend, shortly after Democrats in Virginia’s legislature are expected to pass a mid-decade redistricting amendment.
And while Virginia governors usually have little influence on the constitutional amendment process, the timing required for the proposed redraw to have any impact in the 2026 midterms will require the governor-elect, who's tepid on the concept, to act.
“No! But, well, as it relates to what [Speaker of the House Don Scott] talked about, what's happening in Texas and North Carolina, I do think it's important Virginia leave open the option,” Spanberger said in December when asked if she thought mid-cycle redistricting was the way to go for Virginia.
Speaking to POLITICO, the incoming governor clarified her tepid response by saying it will be up to the people via ballot referendum.
And while Virginia’s constitutional amendment process is usually outside the governor’s purview, Radio IQ political analyst and UVA Center for Politics scholar Jeff Schapiro said the timing required for mid-cycle redistricting, specifically a referendum in the spring, will require action from the executive.
“To put that matter before the electorate requires adopting a statute, a piece of law; and it will have to be signed by the governor,” he said.
There’s also funding for that spring referendum, her approval of the maps themselves and some statutory requirements in the map drawing process that may need her signature.
Such action could be among Spanberger’s first responsibilities after taking office.
Virginia Senate President Louise Lucas reiterated her support for a 10-1 map Friday morning.
"I’m sticking with that today," Lucas said on social media.
And while Spanberger's 15-point win in November may speak to Virginians’ support for her and her policies, other forces, like Lucas' influence on the rest of her gubernatorial term, could play into the process, according to political analyst Bob Holsworth.
“Democrats in her party are really pushing it," Holsworth told Radio IQ Friday morning. "The people she needs to push her own agenda."
Spanberger has said she believes Democrats could win two more of Virginia's 11 congressional seats without intervention, but that's not enough for Lucas. But Holsworth fears the stark redraw could come at other political costs.
"I think [Spanberger] recognizes that if there’s a 10-1 map, this is going to really poison even further than they might currently be potential relationships with the Trump administration right away,” he said.
If Spanberger does go along with the redraw process, she'll have allies inside and outside the legislature.
“We intend to continue to advocate for better and protection of Black political representation in democracy,” NAACP Virginia State Conference President, Reverend Cozy Bailey, said as he announced his organization's full support for the effort Thursday.
Notably, NAACP helped California Governor Gavin Newsome in his redistricting referendum, but with messaging and funds. Nearly 65% of the Golden State supported the effort last November.
The Virginia legislature is expected to take up the redistricting amendment when the 2026 session starts Wednesday, January 14th.
This report, provided by Virginia Public Radio, was made possible with support from the Virginia Education Association.
