This story was reported and written by our media partner the Virginia Mercury.
Democrat Elaine Luria holds a narrow lead over Republican U.S. Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia’s closely watched 2nd Congressional District, according to a Christopher Newport University poll released Wednesday, but the three-point difference falls within the survey’s +/- 4 margin of error.
Luria received 46% support among likely voters in the district, compared with 43% for Kiggans, according to the university’s Wason Center poll. Another 10% were still undecided, and 2% favored another candidate.
Kiggans defeated Luria, a former Democratic congresswoman, in 2022. Their rematch is among the races Democrats are targeting as they try to regain control of the U.S. House.
Both candidates have strong backing within their parties, with Kiggans leading among Republicans, 94% to 3%, and Luria ahead among Democrats, 92% to 1%. Independents favored Luria with 45% to 38%.
Support for the candidates differed sharply between genders. Women preferred Luria by 57% to 36%, while men backed Kiggans with 49% to 37%.
Luria also led among Black voters, 84% to 7%, and college graduates, 53% to 38%. Kiggans held an advantage among white voters, 58% to 35%, and those without college degrees, 49% to 38%. The margin of error may be higher for some of the subgroups.
The poll also measured support in Virginia’s U.S. Senate race. Democratic incumbent Mark Warner led Republican challenger Bert Mizusawa by 51% to 37% among likely voters in the 2nd District. Another 11% were undecided, and 2% favored another candidate.
Those results only apply to the district and do not represent a statewide Senate poll.
The cost of living was the most frequently cited concern among respondents, with 24% naming it as the issue most important to their congressional vote. Threats to democracy followed at 20%, and immigration ranked third at 11%.
For Democrats, cost of living led at 32%, followed by threats to democracy at 27%. Independents ranked those issues similarly, at 25% and 22%, respectively.
Republican respondents were more concerned about immigration, which 24% identified as their top issue. Cost of living and threats to democracy each received 14%.
Luria held an advantage when voters were asked which candidate they trusted more to handle specific issues. She led Kiggans on 10 of the 12 issues surveyed, including cost of living, healthcare, reproductive rights, immigration and veterans’ affairs.
On cost of living, 48% preferred Luria, compared with 39% for Kiggans.
Kiggans had a slight edge on crime, 45% to 42%, while the candidates were tied at 44% on gun policy.
Asked how President Donald Trump factored into their congressional vote, 43% said it was a vote against him, while 14% saw it as a vote in his favor. Another 37% said Trump was not much of a factor. At a recent rally in Syracuse, N.Y., Trump urged supporters to vote as though his name were on the ballot.
Trump’s job approval stood at 33% among the district’s likely voters, with 62% disapproving and 5% unsure.
Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger received a 42% approval rating, compared with 49% who disapproved and 9% who were unsure.
Nearly one in five respondents, or 19%, said they had already voted. Democrats were more likely to have cast ballots, at 29%, compared with 16% of independents and 13% of Republicans.
Enthusiasm was high across party lines, with 82% describing themselves as very or somewhat enthusiastic about voting.
Democrats were the most likely to say they were very enthusiastic, at 64%, followed by Republicans at 56% and independents at 50%.
The Wason Center conducted the survey between Oct. 1 and 10 through more than 700 live telephone interviews on landlines and cellphones. Results were weighted by locality, age, race, sex and education to reflect the district’s expected electorate.