Virginia voters could decide whether to reshape the state's congressional map ahead of this fall's federal midterms and shuffle who represents them in Congress for the next four years.
After Republican states including Texas and Ohio moved to redraw their congressional maps at the urging of President Donald Trump, California and other Democrat-led states followed.
Democrats in control of the Virginia General Assembly pressed forward with a redistricting effort of their own in the hope of flipping four seats in November's midterm elections.
They sent a constitutional amendment to voters that would allow the Legislature to bypass the commonwealth's typical redistricting process if other states do the same, then approved a redrawn map with 10 districts that lean Democrat and just one that favors Republicans. (The split is currently 6–5.)
While legal challenges still loom over Virginia Democrats' plan, early voting for the April 21 referendum began March 6. More than 1,200 people cast ballots in Henrico County on the first day, according to registrar Mark Coakley.
"I just think the Democrats have gone way too far on this issue," Darrel Feasel said after voting at the county's Western Government Center. "This is ridiculous. We voted in 2020 to have an independent commission to do this. And that seemed like the right way."
Barry Hayes, another early Henrico voter, told VPM News that he supports Virginia Democrats trying to counter Republican states that have redrawn their maps to give the GOP an advantage in the battle for control of the US House of Representatives.
"I think Virginia has come up with a decent middle ground in that if it's necessary for us to pull the trigger on this constitutional amendment, then we have the option, and then it's not forever," he said.
The Democrat-led effort has drawn scrutiny from state Republicans, who argue that voters already approved the redistricting system Virginia would use. Democrats argue that they are fighting back against Republicans in other states seeking to maintain control of the US House.
Virginia's current redistricting system calls for a bipartisan commission to redraw the maps every decade using updated US Census data. But the commission didn't come up with a map it could agree on in 2021, leading to prolonged infighting and the Supreme Court of Virginia approving the new boundaries.
Under the Democrats' redistricting plan, legislators can step in to redraw the districts until the end of October 2030 in response to other states engaging in mid-decade redistricting. The job would then go back to the state redistricting commission.
Rich Meagher, professor and chair of political science at Randolph-Macon College, says people know where most partisan voters stand on the issue.
But he says "the information barrier is really high," because many things remain unsettled, like all of the candidates who will be on the ballot.
"I think the problem is going to be that anybody in the middle on this either isn't going to care or isn't going to understand it enough to care," Meagher, who also hosts the VPM podcast RVA's Got Issues, said.
With the current map drawn by the Virginia Supreme Court only being used for two US House election cycles, Meagher said "plenty of people still might remember that they're in the 7th District or the 1st District, when now they're not."
Meagher also called the proposed districts drawn by Democrats "bewildering." He pointed out that the 8th District includes the City of Alexandria and other parts of Northern Virginia, but also Caroline County in Central Virginia and York County in the Tidewater region.
Under the Democrats' proposed map, most Richmond voters would still be in the 4th District, which would also include parts of Southside Virginia like Danville. The current district is represented by Democratic Rep. Jennifer McClellan, who is favored to remain in the seat.
But more than a third of voters — those in the city's West End and western parts of both South Richmond and Northside — would move into the 5th District, which will be primarily made up of parts of Chesterfield and Henrico.
These aren't the only changes in Central Virginia. Hanover County voters would also be split among the 1st and 5th districts.
Voters in the 1st Congressional District, represented by Republican Rep. Rob Wittman, will be spread among five districts in the proposed map, according to the Virginia Public Access Project.
Most of Wittman's constituents will vote in the proposed 5th District if the map is approved by voters, per VPAP, followed by the 8th District. The proposed 1st District moves north, with parts of Fairfax and Prince William counties. It would still include nearly 81,000 Hanover voters, according to VPAP.
Henrico Commonwealth's Attorney Shannon Taylor, one of the Democrats seeking the party's nomination in the 1st District race, has already announced her intention to run in the 5th District if the referendum passes.
"We don't have primaries yet," Meagher added. "It's really hard for any individual voter to use those maps to make some kind of calculus about whether it's a good idea, or what's going to actually happen to them and who they vote for."
Virginia moved its primary elections to Aug. 4 to accommodate the redistricting vote. Candidates have until May 26 to file, regardless of whether voters approve the new maps.
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