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How does early voting impact turnout?

"I Voted" stickers are available at an early voting location in Alexandria, Va., Monday, Sept. 26, 2022.
Andrew Harnik
/
AP
"I Voted" stickers are available at an early voting location in Alexandria, Va., Monday, Sept. 26, 2022.

Early voting starts Friday, when 45 days of early voting begins. What will that mean for turnout in this year's midterm elections?

Here's something that might be a bit counterintuitive: spreading out voting over an extended timeline ends up decreasing turnout because it dilutes social pressure, media focus and civic engagement. That's according to researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. But those same researchers also found that same day voter registration mitigates that.

"We have both the same day voter registration that's available, Election Day voter registration that's available and the long voter, early voting period," says Jennifer Victor at George Mason University. "All of those things should combine to overall increase voter turnout, but it also gives campaigns an incentive to lock those votes in early so they sort of don't have to worry about them or campaign to them anymore."

Former elections commissioner Chris Piper founded the consulting firm Advance Elections. He says turnout is influenced by many factors, including candidate quality and district competitiveness.

"If they're in a district where it's heavily Republican or heavily Democrat, there's not as much interest in participating in that election," Piper says.

Virginia has one of the longest early voting calendars in the country, 45 days, starting on Friday. It also has same day registration, allowing voters to register to vote and cast a ballot on Election Day in November.

Michael Pope is an author and journalist who lives in Old Town Alexandria.