In 2009, at the depth of America’s Great Recession, the U.S. saw its greatest year-over-year birth rate decline since the early 1970’s.
Over the next decade, that means the number of 18-year-olds graduating high school will drops 10% creating what colleges and universities call the enrollment cliff.
The impending drop in students jumping from high school straight into college has higher education officials looking for ways to keep their enrollment up.
In Hampton Roads, that means everything from expanding graduate programs to on-campus daycare.
Here’s how some of the region’s institutions are preparing to handle the enrollment cliff.
ODU looks to post-grad, Latino recruiting
According to Old Dominion University provost Brian Payne, the most harmful impact of the enrollment cliff is painfully clear for colleges and universities.
“The financial implication is that for institutions that are dependent on tuition revenue, they're going to have to figure out a way to offset those losses,” he said.
At ODU, Payne said boosting its graduate student population will be key.
“We also are looking more at professional master's degree programs that would address the different needs of today's employers,” Payne said, citing courses on data science and cybersecurity.
The university’s 2022 creation of the School of Supply Chain, Logistics and Maritime Operations was a clear effort to attract more career-focused students, something that’s also been a key part of new partnerships with local community colleges. The community college system also provides a steady stream of transfer students to four-year colleges that could help offset the decline in new freshmen.
ODU is also looking to boost its recruiting among the region and state’s growing Hispanic and Latino community.
Brandi Hephner LaBanc, ODU’s vice president overseeing student enrollment, said the university hired a recruiter specifically to attract Latino students.
To help bridge the gap with parents who don’t speak English, ODU brought in Spanish-speaking tour guides, printed materials in Spanish and has hosted Spanish-language recruiting events.
“As a university, we're also making sure that we're adapting in that way so that we can continue to recruit not just the student. The family is important,” LaBanc said.
“Why are you addressing this now”
Virginia Wesleyan University President Scott Miller said he got strange looks when he started talking about the enrollment cliff almost a decade ago as he took the reins at what was then Virginia Wesleyan College.
“They said ‘This is 2015. Why are you addressing this now?’ Well, because you can project those things if you're a data-driven person,” Miller said.
A big push in planning for VWU’s future was making more space for “non-traditional students.”
That’s higher-ed speak for anyone who doesn’t follow the standard high school-to-college pipeline. Every institution WHRO reached for this story talked about the importance of nontraditional students, which includes everyone from retirees taking classes for fun to the mid-career worker looking for a change.
In anticipation of the cliff, Miller led the charge on transforming the private college into a university, which meant adding graduate programs and starting an international online program called Global Campus.
That effort now enrolls 5,000 students around the world, more than triple the university’s in-person enrollment in Virginia Beach.
Miller said the school has also flipped its marketing model, seeking to attract students to its campus with stuff to do in addition to academic offerings.
He reasons that will help Virginia Wesleyan fare better than other private schools located in smaller areas away from travel options, job and internship opportunities and, of course, the beach.
“Those are awfully attractive to students coming from up and down the East Coast, and those aren't things that other schools can bring in to a rural location,” Miller said.
Bringing down barriers
Misty Lyon at Tidewater Community College said they’ve recently seen strong growth in dual-enrollment by high school students, a trend that started before the COVID-19 pandemic and has continued to swell.
“So even though there will be less high schoolers, we have more high schoolers taking advantage of dual enrollment,” Lyon said.
She noted that community colleges are already geared more toward adult learners than other higher education entities may be. TCC offers lots of professional and workforce programs for “reskilling” adult students and has built on that in recent years with things like its expanded Commercial Driver’s License courses.
With the growing emphasis on non-traditional students, TCC has laid out lots of measures to lower the barrier of entry for those who may be juggling careers, kids or other responsibilities.
“I know as an adult, going back to school, a 15-week semester was pretty daunting for me working full time and trying to go to school,” Lyon said. “We offer a lot of shorter classes, like an eight-week class, which is much more manageable for an adult.”
TCC also launched on-campus childcare to overcome a major financial and logistical barrier that stops parents from taking classes. The full-day care is currently available at TCC’s Norfolk and Portsmouth locations with plans to open them at the college’s other two campuses.
Note: Virginia Wesleyan University’s president Scott Miller is a member of WHRO’s governing board, which does not have editorial influence over our news division.